Economic Indicators
Recession Probability

Recession Probability

The "Recession Probability" indicator is a forward-looking metric that uses data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's model to predict potential economic recessions. This indicator encompasses various measures, such as the "US Recession Probability," the "USD Smoothed Recession Probability" version, and the "Sahm Rule Recession Indicator."

US Recession Probability

The "US Recession Probability" assesses the likelihood of a recession based on current economic conditions. This measure is crucial for understanding the imminent risk of an economic downturn, providing valuable insights for investors and policy-makers.

USD Smoothed Recession Probability

The "USD Smoothed" version offers a more stable and long-term view, smoothing out short-term fluctuations. This approach allows for a more consistent analysis of underlying trends, helping to identify early signs of recession.

Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

The "Sahm Rule Recession Indicator," on the other hand, focuses on changes in the unemployment rate to predict recessions. This indicator is particularly useful for detecting early signs of economic slowdown, as rapid increases in unemployment often precede recessions.

Integrated Analysis

By examining these different aspects, the "Recession Probability" indicator provides valuable insights into the economy's health. This integrated analysis is essential for investors looking to make informed decisions in anticipation of possible periods of economic contraction.

Understanding the nuances of these metrics can assist in formulating resilient investment strategies, allowing investors to better position their portfolios in the face of economic uncertainties.